Posted by
The Hymnist on Tuesday, August 01, 2006 1:52:28 PM
With all the rumors swirling about Castor - I mean - Castro's
demise - I thought it wise to read into what the United States would do. I found (via Ask.com) on GlobalSecurity.org this
gem of a paper by Lt. Col. Lynch, USMC written 1995, it is a long read, but an excellent summary of the history of Cuba and how Castro came to power and how he thinks up to the Cuban Missile Crisis of 1962 (unfortunately - little history thereafter). I knew already that one of the stipulations for the removal of the Soviet missiles was the guarantee that the U.S. would not invade Cuba. It isn't the whole story, but this Marine has written up a really nice paper and discusses the problems that Cuba will have that might require military intervention. Here is an lengthly excerpt well worth your time to know of a Marine's perspective of Castro and Cuba in 1995:
Especially for military
professionals, however, the pursuit of U.S. national security interests implies that continued
involvement and/or intervention in Cuba remain necessary. Should that involvement
dictate the use of military force, it is most likely that with the history of U.S. intervention in Cuba, this force will be in support of operations that
can most likely be classified as Operations Other Than War (OOTW).
Consequently,
should the use of OOTW be required, it will be necessary to accurately evaluate
the threat. As previously discussed in
this thesis, however, one of the United States' greatest failures when
intervening in Cuba was not understanding Cuba. In OOTW operations, this key inability will
prevent success unless the larger political-military aspects of a crisis in Cuba are evaluated in terms of Cuba's political, judicial, administrative, diplomatic,
economic, and social aspects. Subsequently, any such evaluation
should include not only an analysis of the type of insurgent strategies
used, but also what methods should be followed to counter an OOTW threat.
For the United
States
and its allies, the methods to be used can only be determined by understanding past
Cuban reactions which must include an evaluation of Cuba's historical relationship with the United States. Key to
understanding this relationship must be an awareness of Castro's belief that
the Cuban Missile Crisis still remains an unresolved chapter in Cuban history
and that Cuba still continues to wage a "Cold War" struggle with the
United States. Most especially, the essence of that struggle needs to
be analyzed and understood for what it means to Cuba and how it relates to a new, post-Cold War order
focusing on the "humanitarian" use of force and
"humanitarian" intervention rather than old, Cold War conflicts.
The essence
of Castro's post Cuban Missile Crisis struggle with the United
States needs also to be considered in light of the type of operations that will,
most likely, be conducted in Cuba in the future. As history repeats
itself, it is most likely that these struggles will be either peacekeeping,
peace-enforcement, or peacemaking. Conditional to the type of operation
used will be the amount of control exerted by the opposing forces. Thus,
still reminiscent of the Cuban Missile Crisis is the amount of control exerted
by Castro which, to a large extent, still exists within Cuba today. Consequently,
the obvious form a military operation may take in Cuba will
depend on the existence of Castro.
Should Castro not be alive or if he is unable to
maintain control, such operations must also consider the strength of his
designated successor and/or the strength of competing factions.
Also of consequence is the level of support provided by the Cuban Communist
Party, its ability to continue the "Cuban Revolution" after Castro
ceases to be a force in Cuba, and the
strength of any alternative parties.
All of these scenarios, however, require an understanding of Cuba and its past, of which the Cuban Missile Crisis
forms an integral part…
Now,
approximately 35 [ed. note – now almost
45] years following the end of the Cuban Missile Crisis… [t]he United States still enforces an embargo on Cuba while Castro still continues to be an irritant to
U.S efforts in the Caribbean.
Consequently,
although Cuba no longer enjoys Soviet economic subsidies and
military support, the struggle between U.S. democratic ideals and Castro's communism continues.
While U.S. efforts regarding Cuba have borne little success, it is obvious that
Castro's feet are still planted in Cuba, and that socialism and an inherent distrust of the United States linger.
However,
as the results of a recent [ed. note - ~1995] poll conducted in Cuba by a group of Mexican television reporters
reflects, Castro may still be in power, but the strength of his power is now in
question. As the poll shows, 66% of Cubans indicated they were against
Castro, while only 22% indicated that they favored him. In addition, 77%
said he was a dictator whose greatest weaknesses were arrogance (43%) and oppressiveness
(35%). While 64% of the population stated that the greatest successes
of the Cuban revolution were health and education, only 17% stated that freedom
and equality were successes. Key to this poll was the analysis that the
percent of Cubans who indicated they favored Castro versus those who did not
(22% and 66% respectfully) matched the current demographic makeup of Cuba. In
short, sixty percent of the Cubans living in Cuba today [ed. note- in
1995 – has to be higher 11 years later!] were not born when the Cuban
Revolution took place. Although a 1991 Cuban nationwide poll
revealed strong support for Castro, with 95% of Cubans favoring Cuba's one
party rule while 98% believed Castro to be the most "important political personality
of the world," the divergence between the two polls clearly reflects
Cuba's new vulnerability as the lone keeper of the Communist faith.177
For
the Cubans now experiencing the revolution's economic survival, the single most
important question is "Where does this leave Cuba?" As Cuba's Fourth Congress of the Communist Party attempted
to deal with this question in October 1991, the grim
realities of Cuba's future under communism surfaced. Deep division within the party
centered on exactly what course of action should be taken. Young reformers,
concerned about their future if the party collapsed, pressed for political and
economic reform that would breathe new life into the party. Leaders of
the party's old guard argued that, at a time when the revolution was facing its
worst crisis ever, any reforms - whether free legislative elections or
greater-autonomy for state enterprises - could spin out of control and destroy
the revolution and Cuba.178
In
addition to Cuban Communist Party concerns, Cuba now also
seems to be facing the apathy of its young. The youth of Cuba who did
not experience the birth of the revolution are reportedly more intent on
obtaining the benefits of the "West" and of capitalism then on
maintaining revolutionary fervor.
Accordingly, as Cuba continues its economic spiral downward, the "revolution" and
its social causes appear to be the only thing Castro has left. Reduced to
its barebones ideologically, Castro attempts to explain away Cuba's current state of economic survival by identifying
it as a "Special Period" for Cuba.
The
question, then, of where this leaves Cuba is difficult to answer. Castro, shrouded in
the thick veil of an archaic revolution, continues to address Cuba's problems with antiquated remedies. Failing
to respond imaginatively and boldly to the extraordinary events that shook Cuba following the dissolution of the Soviet Union, Castro may, in effect, be causing the demise of his
own revolution.
Unwilling to institute reform or begin a peaceful
transition to capitalism or even democratic socialism, the future of Cuba and of
Castro's revolution remains in doubt. Will the revolution survive Castro? Will Castro seek repproachment with the United States in order to save Cuba? Or, will Cuba succumb to civil war until a new Castro or Batista
assumes control? Only Cuba can answer
that question, and most assuredly the United
States must be prepared to deal with the
outcome.
Stay tuned!